BY BEN RAPHEL

In print | March 8, 2007

March arrives every year with the promise of warmer weather, spring break and - most importantly - the NCAA Tournament, or what is more commonly known as March Madness. In my opinion, it’s the single best tournament of the year. The games themselves can always be thrilling, but what’s often even more exciting is picking the outcomes of each game. Once the brackets are announced on Sunday, you’ll have less than four days to select the winners of all 63 games (there are actually 64 total games, but next Tuesday’s play-in game is often not counted). So to help you win your friends’ money this year, or at least their respect, here’s are some tips for filling out your bracket this year.

Don’t pick all No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four. Every year, some intrepid television commentator will claim that this is finally the year when all four No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four. Don’t listen to him; he has no idea what he’s talking about. Since there are never four truly dominant teams, and there are always so many upsets, the chance of this happening is very unlikely in any year. And last season, not a single one-seed even made it to the Final Four.

Beware of the 5-12 upset. The four five-seed against 12-seed games of the first round are always entertaining. The teams seeded 12th are always either winners of their conference championships or “bubble” teams who just barely made their way into the tournament and now feel they have something to prove. Five-seeds, however, are often teams who ended their seasons disappointingly and therefore do not have the same motivation that other teams exhibit. So picking at least one five-seed to lose in the first round is a safe bet.

Look for a team with momentum to win it all. Before the tournament began last year, Florida had a five-game winning streak and then won all six NCAA games. They beat UCLA in the final, another team that had won its conference tournament. In fact, the past five champions have all been riding win streaks or have only had a few recent losses going into the NCAA tournament. However, conference champions Syracuse, Iowa and Kansas all lost in the first round last year, so a hot streak may also make a team burn out.

Duke just isn’t that good this year. Though Dick Vitale or Kristen Traband ‘08 may tell you otherwise, this is a down year for the Blue Devils. They have a team of young and inexperienced players, and lost four straight games back in February. Coach K’s boys will definitely be on top again in a year or two, but this doesn’t look like it will be their year. The best they will likely finish is in the Sweet Sixteen. And I have even less sympathy for them after Gerald Henderson’s clearly intentional foul against UNC on Sunday.

Don’t listen to Billy Packer. CBS announcer Billy Packer always likes to antagonize the NCAA selection committee after brackets are announced, but his criticism has had mixed results. Last year, Packer questioned whether mid-major George Mason deserved to be in the tournament instead of other teams from bigger conferences; then the Patriots ended up going to the Final Four. So be wary when Packer criticizes any team this year; they probably will end up doing well.

Watch out for the superstar freshmen. In 2003, Carmelo Anthony led Syracuse to a national title in his only year with the Orange. This year, the projected top NBA draft picks are two freshmen whose potentials are through the roof. Kevin Durant has been averaging 25 points and 11 rebounds per game for Texas, while Ohio State’s seven-foot center Greg Oden has averaged 15 points per game and has been an intimidating presence under the basket for the Buckeyes. Can either of these freshmen lead their respective teams to glory like Carmelo did a few years ago?

Finally, don’t try to predict every game correctly. There are about 9.22 quintillion possible ways to fill out your bracket, making a perfect bracket nearly impossible. So if you want to win your pool this season, make sure you correctly pick as many Final Four teams as possible. Sure, it’s fun to predict those first- and second-round upsets, but in the end, make sure you pick a team to win it all that you’re confident in.

UCLA, perhaps?

Ben is a sophomore. You can reach him at braphel1@swarthmore.edu.

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